Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 172306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.


ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
KEEPING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL EXCEED 20 MPH. IT WILL DRY OUT NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. DEAD GRASSES WILL BE ABLE TO DRY BUT
WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS TO SPREAD ANY FIRE
WE WILL NOT RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOO MUCH. IF ANY CONCERNS
ARISE IT WILL BE ACROSS NW PA.

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY THEN RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY BEGINS TO DISINTEGRATE AND EJECT
CHUNKS OF ENERGY OUT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST GOING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST IN
THE SNOWBELT AREAS. EVENTUALLY...BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FORCING SOME WARMER AIR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDING TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS DRIED OUT GOOD TODAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS THERE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE LATE NIGHT FOG TO
SOME DEGREE FROM CLE TO MFD AND EASTWARD AND ALSO MAYBE AT TOL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST...BUT STAY WITH MVFR VERSUS IFR SINCE
MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
CIRRUS. ALSO WILL JUST HINT AT FOG FOR CLE AND ERI WITH 6SM AS LAND
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND TRY TO KEEP FOG/HZ FROM
WORSENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECT ONLY MIXTURE OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT
WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY









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