Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 011924
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IL/MO EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. CONVECTIVE CU
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SHADOW. AM
EXPECTING THIS CU TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LAST NIGHT MAV GUIDANCE WAS A FEW
DEGREES WARM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL GO ALONG WITH THE BIAS
AND CUT A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE WEST AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN. EXPECTING CU TO DEVELOP SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LESS OF A LAKE SHADOW GIVEN MORE OF A
WEST COMPONENT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT
THIS TIME THE NAM12 SHOWS NO CAPE OR PRECIP SO WILL KEEP DRY.
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AND 850MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH
10C. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE INCREASING TO THE WEST AS FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON CAPES INCREASE TO 3 TO 500 J/KG AS
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER
WITH BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. NOT A LOT OF
FORCING WITH A SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DO THINK THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ACTIVE AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST AND CHANCE
POPS CONTINUING EAST. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.




&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON TUESDAY AND
WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPPED THOUGH BY
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THE COOLEST
WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. IF ANY OF OUR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MANAGE
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THEY CAN GET INTO THE MID 70S. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE OLD FRONT EITHER DISSIPATING IN PLACE OR LIFTING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUCHING 80 AGAIN. LAKE BREEZES
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NORTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS SATURDAY. CURRENT CUMULUS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WILL FADE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WILL BE DOMINATED BY AFTERNOON ONSHORE WINDS AND NIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP ON LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL LIKELY BE
UNDER 20 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK.
THEREFORE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.