Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 030552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT
WILL TURN WARM AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING CONVECTIVE CU ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HEATING DECREASES. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH GENERALLY 45 TO 50 ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER FROM TODAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ONE MORE
DAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODELS ARE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS 10-20 PERCENT
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. STILL...BROUGHT A CHANCE AS FAR EAST
AS A ERI-CLE-MFD-MNN LINE. EXPECTING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY EXTENDING EAST WEST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR IT DROPS SOUTH BEFORE IT
STALLS. FOR NOW BROUGHT IN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA COUNTIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 60S NORTH. CONTINUED
WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY TAPERING TO CHANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECTING A MILD PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TUESDAY NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN BE TRICKY TO TIME...YET THE
CURRENT INDICATORS ARE THAT THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS...THE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH THICKNESSES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80F OVER THE AREA. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RESULTING
IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME
80 DEGREE DAYS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 12 KNOTS. GUSTS MAY REACH 20
KNOTS ACROSS NW OHIO. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE FROM KCLE TO KERI
WITH THE GREATEST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR KERI. WINDS AT KCLE AND KERI
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER
10KT. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT OUT
OF THE NORTH FROM CLE TO ERI...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE NEARLY REPEATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SW AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT.
A COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF THE NORTH WILL SAG INTO LAKE ERIE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL/SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...JAMISON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.