Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250223
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO SANDUSKY. THE RADAR RETURNS ARE MOSTLY
ALOFT AT THE MOMENT BUT THE ECHOES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AND SEVERAL OF OUR MESO MODELS POST SMALL AMOUNTS
OF QPF ACROSS NW OHIO BY DAYBREAK. PROBABLY WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BUT WORTH A MENTION. ALSO NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS ACROSS NW OHIO BASED
ON THE THICKENING CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM. THIS WILL FILL IN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WEST. MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS MOVING IN TO THE W AROUND
03-06Z...BUT WITH VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE PRECIP THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS (RECORDS: YNG
25F, ERI 23F). MAIN FACTOR FOR ERI AREA WILL BE IF THE WINDS
LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE COOLER AIR IN THE HILLS TO
FILL INTO THE CITY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. YNG WILL SEE A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD STILL APPROACH THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM`S IMPACTS WILL BE
LESS OVER NORTHERN OH/NW PA AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW STILL
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR THE PLAINS LOW
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
H850 WIND MAX IS CUT OFF IN SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY THE H850 FLOW
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP PW VALUES UNDER 1". THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOMETIME FOR
IT TO REACH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL
IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FCST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT A SURGE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME
P-TYPE CONCERNS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SOME SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. FAIR BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  STILL SOME DOUBT BETWEEN THE MODELS
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD NEWS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LOWEST CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT AT MANSFIELD
WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT TOL...FDY...AND MFD AS WELL DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS EAST.

.OUTLOOK...LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM THEN TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB





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