Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240501
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
101 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN BE INTERRUPTED BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACCELERATED THE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND PRETTY
MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THE SUN RISE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACTUAL LOWS
WILL PROBABLY GET TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE RECORDS BUT
EVERY SITE IS WITHIN REACH. RECORDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NO OTHER CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE EAST AS WE MIX INTO MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND...AMPLE LATE APRIL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES
FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLEST WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
AND ESPECIALLY IN NW PA WHERE COOL AIR WILL LAG THE LONGEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED IN REACHING
THE GROUND. 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAN NOT RULE
THIS OUT SO WILL EXERCISE SOME CAUTION IN OVERDOING THE POPS.
HOWEVER A DPROG/DT OF THE GFS SHOWS A CLEAR NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE
EXTENT OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND
GEM. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER QPF VALUES DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.

DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
USHERING IN COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TOWARD 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO UNDER 20 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN










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