Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CONTINUES OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS LINGER OVER INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DRIER AIR
PENETRATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SO DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TAKING PLACE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLIPPER HAS BEEN
TRENDING FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
DEEPER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN
OUTLIER. WENT CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH REQUIRED HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NE OHIO MAY BE
COOL ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SNOW...WITH A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN NW PA.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND INCLUDED
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR...FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A
WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW
20S.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
TREND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NW OHIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MODEL STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY. IF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION...
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR SHOWING A
COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA WITH BEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP
ACROSS THE AREA SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO
TAPERED POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN
OHIO...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST MOISTURE RETURNS WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO DRY. TEMPS CHANGEABLE WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY...DROPPING BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.  THE GFS
WOULD SAY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOL.  MONDAY MILD.
FOLLOWED GFS/WPC BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A TRACK FROM NEAR KTOL TO NEAR KPIT
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THIS LINE AND WILL
BRING PRECIP INTO NW OHIO AROUND 04Z. IT WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW AT KERI WITH A MIX OR ALL SNOW AT KYNG. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP
TO MVFR AT KERI AND KYNG OVERNIGHT AND MANY OTHER PLACES TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SHEAR AT KFDY AND KMFD OVERNIGHT. THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL BE DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR GIVEN THEIR LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE LOW ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
LAKE BY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY
AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY COME
TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. TUESDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 5 TO 15
KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





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