Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031042
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
642 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
WARM AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME CLOUDS PUSHING INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE AS LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A MILD RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SHAPING UP FOR TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND HEADED INTO KENTUCKY. SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NOW...FURTHER EAST AND INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKE I ANTICIPATE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
CUMULUS CLOUD ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT AND
ALLOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ONE COULD SAY SOME VERY WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
MORNING ALOFT.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.  THE NAM
MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE FASTEST WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE A
BIT SLOWER. WILL TAKE THE SLOWER OPTION AND HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN
OUT BY WEDNESDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BIG QUESTION REMAINS FOR TUESDAY IS THE NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE LAKE INTO LUCAS COUNTY. I THINK TEMPERATURES MAY BE AN
EARLY HIGH IN THE MORNING AND TURNING COOLER. THE REASON BEING THE
COLD DOME OF AIR OVER THE LAKE WILL PUSH INLAND AND AFFECT LUCAS.
DAY SHIFT FORECAST RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SO RATHER THAN
FLIP FLOP...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES FALLING AS
THE COLDER AIR OFF THE LAKE SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
VERY SLIM CHANCES FOR THUNDER. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF A LAKE BREEZE CAN PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SINCE UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WILL BE
BUILDING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
SCATTERED BY SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. INLAND HIGHS
WITHIN COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 12 KNOTS. GUSTS MAY REACH 20
KNOTS ACROSS NW OHIO. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE FROM KCLE TO KERI
WITH THE GREATEST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR KERI. WINDS AT KCLE AND KERI
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM FROM KCLE TO KERI
WHERE ONSHORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE UNDER 12 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON. THE
FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
WOBBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THERE SHOULD BE A EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW. WAVES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BASIN BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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