Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 281026
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN ITS WAKE TO END THE WORK WEEK. A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING FINALLY
GETTING TO THE AREA. A FEW STRATOCU WILL STILL BRUSH NW PA THIS
MORNING AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL A FAIR DAY. WILL STILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY
FLOW...BUT WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMER...BUT STILL JUST SHY OF NORMALS. NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONFLICTING ON HOW DEEP
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AND ALSO ITS POSITION RELATIVE TO OUR AREA.
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PLACED THEM ON
THURSDAY INSTEAD. FEEL WITH THIS UPPER LOW...PRECIP WILL BE IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW ITSELF AND THAT DAYTIME
HEATING WITH THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT...WILL TRIGGER A FLARE
UP IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL WANE AGAIN WITH SUNSET. AS FAR AS
THE POSITION OF THE LOW...GFS IS STILL THE OUTLIER IN TAKING IT
RIGHT INTO OHIO. THE OTHER PRIMARY MODELS ARE FURTHER WEST WITH
IT...CHICAGO INTO WESTERN KY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO EASTERN OH/NW PA...SO MAYBE POPS WILL END UP NEEDING TO BE
HIGHER THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL GET INTO THE 30S ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-71. FURTHER WEST FOR TOLEDO AND FINDLAY...LOWS
REACH THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 30S FOR LOWS WILL BE LESS AND LESS
BEYOND TONIGHT. NOT A HALF BAD DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...COOLEST
ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THURSDAY
WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUPPRESSED BY A HANDFUL OF DEGREES. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST
FRIDAY SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE LEFT BEHIND. ALLOWED THE
WEST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S...WITH NEAR 60 EAST AND UPPER 50S
LAKESHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL GOING WITH THE IDEA OF WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS HANGS ON TO A WEAKENING FRONT ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE OTHER
MODELS ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT THE FRONT. WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ANY SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND THE ABSENCE OF
SHOWERS WE SHOULD TAKE A RUN AT 70F. THERE COULD STILL BE A WIND OFF
LAKE ERIE UP THE EAST LAKESHORE TO ERIE COUNTY PA SO NOT AS WARM
THERE.

WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST...ON SUNDAY. WITH RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE I SUSPECT THE RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SMALL UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY. THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST WARM ON MONDAY BASED WITH THE FRONT BEING A BIT SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. IT
IS RELATIVELY COLD ALOFT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST
HANGS ON. THIS WILL ALLOW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
GRADIENT WILL TEND TO BE FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL ONSHORE/
OFFSHORE WINDS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REINFORCE
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LAKE WILL LIKELY GET A
BIT CHOPPY THURSDAY BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE WEST BY SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.