Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260703
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT
TO TRIGGER CU FORMATION AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST UPPER S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT NEAR ERI BY
EVENING. NORTH WINDS OFF OF LERI WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAW WITH HIGHS
NEAR THE LAKE STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 50 WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
SEE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER S/W`S ROTATING AROUND THE
POLAR VORTEX AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCT
SHRA SHOULD GET MORE NUMEROUS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO WHETHER TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
VERSUS RAIN. SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND GROUND
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING...DON`T SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IF ANY ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR.
ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE SO LITTLE CHANGES.

THE PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE MON THEN GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THRU
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.
DAYTIME HEATING ON MON SHOULD CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON
THEN THE AIRMASS WARMS A FEW DEGREES ALOFT SO EVEN WITH SURFACE
COOLING MON NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AS RAIN OR
MOSTLY RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ON MON...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME ON TUE BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

ON WED...A REINFORCING PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY THRU BUT BY WED NIGHT THE
SHRA SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO REGION DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS MUCH DEEPER.  BOTH MODELS AGREE ON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HOWEVER
FOR CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SITUATION BEGINS TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BEGIN MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. MODELS REALLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE HOWEVER BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BEING CENTERED OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY SATURDAY MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE GFS
SHOWING AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER GA WITH A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER ALSO SHOWS A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE ON
BOTH MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN NOW OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR BKN-OVC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS IS ON ITS WAY OUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING
CIGS LOWERING TO BKN-OVC050.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE MAKING FOR A CHOPPY SOUTHERN NEARSHORE.  AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
AM THINKING WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES
TO DROP OFF. THURSDAY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL POSSIBLY ELEVATE WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. FOR NOW HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK










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