Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR A THINNER OVERCAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ANY EVENT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST
NIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CEILINGS WITH THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEEPEN AS IT RACES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FIRST THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LOB ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.

A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT THESE SLIGHTLY.
COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE GET STUCK IN A STALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MAY EVEN GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS H8 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK
COLDER THAN -5C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW FORECAST REMAINS
GENERIC WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. HAVE THE MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONLY AT
NIGHT AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/HOW STRONGLY IT CAN TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER...MAY GET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK A FEW TIMES AT NIGHT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 20 TO 24 HOURS. DRY COLD FRONT HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE REACHING INTO KFDY AND KMFD BEFORE 18Z SUN.
OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD/THICKEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN TO GUST TO 25
KNOTS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK..SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. POTENTIALLY
BREEZY PERIOD FOR THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST WEST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONT AND MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH/EXCEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OFF OF ERIE PA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AFTER THE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.