Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 061735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT WILL START TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTER GREAT LAKES WILL SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL THEN MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO WE WILL DROP THE
FOG ADVISORY. CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RESIDUAL
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT BREEZE FROM LAKE ERIE HAS
KEPT READINGS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS OVER
NW PA. WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE MORE CLEAR AREAS TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING CAPE HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND NEAR YNG. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR SO CAN ONLY
EXPECT ISOLATED ORDINARY CONVECTION AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE SHORE AND WESTERN COUNTIES IS PERSISTING
SO WILL EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR IT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE CLEARING
FROM MNN TO MFD. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST NEAR TOL.

WITH LESS SOLAR HEATING IN THE FOGGY AREA WILL LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED NW
PA FOR NOW SO WILL LOWER POP DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS RADAR SHOWS
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS LINGERING THERE.




PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOG HAS GOTTEN DENSE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SOME LIGHTNING WAS
REPORTED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
BUT THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE
OHIO AND NW PA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED WORDING THAT AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF PRECIP THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT...PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EAST END OF THE AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
OVER FAR NW OHIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THERE. WINDS WILL
START OFF LIGHT EASTERLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO
GET WARMER THAN TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BUT BY THEN MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GOTTEN CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. LOW 80S ARE AGAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT APPEARS THAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. CANNOT SAY THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A FEW POP UP STORMS
AS THIS HAPPENS BUT CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HOLD THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT
KERI AND KBKL. COULD START TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY IN FAR NW OHIO. TOUGH TO TELL IF THESE WILL REACH THE
KTOL AREA BEFORE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT WILL SEE INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO SATURDAY. IT
LOOKS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT BUT STILL SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIP BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
THURSDAY BUT SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WHICH STOP
THE WARMING TREND. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE FORCING OR DYNAMICS WILL
BE THAT GREAT OVER THE WEEKEND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TIME FRAME PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PEAK AS THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT TO JUST KEEP POPS
AT CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKELY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DENSE FOG FINALLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SOME WHAT
DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG DOWN TO MVFR OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. IN THE NORTHEAST...EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS OCCURRED
THIS MORNING. VERTICAL VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE COMPROMISED AS
WELL AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE UP NEAR ERIE AS WELL. RETURNING BACK
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING BR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NON
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PEAK THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKE INTO THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY PUSHES BACK SOUTH DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC





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