Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015


.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15KFT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN FEW-SCT
ON SATURDAY WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFNT/KMBS AS RETURN
FLOW INCREASES AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MODEST CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS 12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED
A 15 C DEW PT DEPRESSION...WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7 C. MAX TEMPS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S/AROUND 70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF LAKE HURON HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY. AFTERNOON DEW PTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S...INDICATIVE OF THE DRY AIRMASS. A SHEARING OUT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BUT JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH STATIC STABILITY IN PLACE.
MAV/MET MIN GUIDANCE TEMPS (PREDOMINATELY LOW/MID 40S) LOOK
REASONABLE WITH FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS)...AS SURFACE HIGH PROMOTES VERY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS WE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE FRONT HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

MUCH LIKE FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRESENT A
FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SE CONUS BUT WE WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO
SWERLY WHICH WILL INITIATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE FOLDED OVER
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL. PWATS WILL STEADILY CLIMB FROM AROUND
0.5 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING TO OVER AN INCH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN THING WE WILL CONTENT WITH ON SATURDAY WILL BE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AS A WEAKENING FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LATE SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS STRONGER
WAA KICKS IN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S...SOME THIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND LATE THERMAL BOOST...WE SHOULD GET UP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ONCE AGAIN.

THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT CHALLENGING AS MODEL RH
FIELDS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT THE DEBRIS SHEDDING OFF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND INCREASE IN THETA E FIELD...SHOULD KEEP A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS UP THERE. WILL KEEP THE PARTLY CLOUDY GOING AS IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR. CONTINUED WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE MI. MODELS ARE
ALLOWING THE RIBBON OF THETA E TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN
THE EVENING BUT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE AXIS OF LAKE MI MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT THINK THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF TIL
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAGINAW BAY WHICH MAY GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK TO SLIDE INTO SE MI ON MONDAY.
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION CLOSER
TO THE JET AXIS...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO COINCIDE
WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUM WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO BORDER...WARRANTING THE CONTINUATION OF
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS NEXT WEEK TO
RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHT RISES OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A REINFORCEMENT OF
THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO REORIENTATE TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH. QUIET WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND STALL THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MONDAY...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND SOUTHWARD INTO
LAKE ERIE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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