Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280358
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1058 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THEN
EAST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LEANED
TOWARD THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A QUIET PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEARBY OR UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AND POSES VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.  A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE IN THE NAM AND GFS.  THE FLOW
FLATTENS A BIT BY FRIDAY WHEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL SUFFICE
FOR THESE DISTURBANCES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SHEARING APART AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT PRECIP STILL
LOOKS TO DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH A SECONDARY WAVE CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.  SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY NOTED ON
PROGGED SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ABSENT AND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REALLY DRY LATELY.  WILL LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED MENTION IF MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE PERSISTING.  CONTINUED SEASONABLE AND QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING A RUN INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THE LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING A DRIER LOOK.  PRECIP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN SMALL AS A RESULT.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...BUT
IMPROVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY THANKS TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.  TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NICE
FLYING WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM





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