Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 052043
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE HIGH AND
MIDDLE CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. RADAR
MOSAIC TIME LAPSE SHOWED ECHOES IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE GRB FORECAST AREA TODAY. WOULD
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING BUT NEEDED TO ADJUST UPWARD FOR
BETTER GRID CONTINUITY.

THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES
STARTING THIS EVENING. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS PUSHES NORTHWARD AND SOME MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN. 12Z GRB/MKX/INL ALL HAD SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE LARGE...AND MANY OF
THE LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAT RECEIVED RAIN HAD
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DURING THE RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT LITTLE
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WHAT DOES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO MEASURE IN MANY CASES. THUNDER APPEARED TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS IN SPC
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AND OFFICES TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER SO HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES NORTH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BRINGS WITH IT SEVERAL
POSSIBILITIES OF RAINFALL OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH
CHALLENGES OF FORECASTING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

WISCONSIN SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY YET DOESN/T
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE EAST AND THEN
BRINGS THE FRONT NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORECAST GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES OF THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINED IN THAT PART OF
THE STATE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ILLINOIS REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. SO FAR ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AS SOME
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES...SO HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA. STILL QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR CIGS BUT
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OR IF IT WILL END UP
REDUCING VSBYS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG





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