Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 220323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1023 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE FAR NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN
VILAS COUNTY. HAVE UP TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY BY
WEDS MORNING. SINCE ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 3 INCHES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO AND ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE SITUATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ON
THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP TYPE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SAT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECASTED
TO MEANDER SIGHTLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.
FOLLOWED TODAYS OVERALL TREND WHEN PUTTING TOGETHER THE FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS IT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE
SAME.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS
MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT WEAKENS. FORCING OVER THE REGION WILL
BE WEAK AS WELL SO WITHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE
RAP MESOANALYSIS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET SHOWERS TO HANG ON
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION OF COURSE BEING NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE
WNW FLOW ALOFT AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TODAY HAS
BEEN MAINLY SNOW...SO MADE TRENDED COLDER AND MADE SNOW THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE ACROSS NE WI...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING
IN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY.

WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER WITH THE MAIN UL TROUGH DRIFTING EAST. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MORE SCATTERED-LIKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES HEIGHTS
WILL SLOWLY RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY AS WELL. SOME
SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY IN THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW BUT THEN IT SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES.
MODELS NOW SEEM TO KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN JUST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER VILAS COUNTY...AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORT-WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...AND ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NC WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW-END VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER VILAS COUNTY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NE OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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