Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 050348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVED SOUTH LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME CIRRUS WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. MOST LOCATIONS HAD BETWEEN 0.1 AND 1.0 INCH
OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. NOT LOOKING LIKE THE
MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION SO NON MENTIONED IN
THE GRIDS.

WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH
AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SMALL SLIVER OF
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY
ALL DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MEAN WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS MOVING INTO DRY AIR AND THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM
ADVECTION SO WHATEVER WE GET SHOULD BE LIGHT. BUILDING UPPER
HEIGHTS AND THE COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST SHOULD PERMIT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES TO BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A BROKEN
MID-LEVEL DECK WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
CIGS TO FALL TO MVFR WHEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC






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