Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FGUS73 KGRB 052059
ESFGRB
WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-125-135-137-139-141-061200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS GREEN BAY SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS
THE TIME PERIOD FOR MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE 2015. THIS INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...YELLOW...WISCONSIN...MENOMINEE...
WOLF...LITTLE WOLF...WAUPACA AND OCONTO.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF MARCH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF MARCH. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL TRENDS
SUPPORT ONLY MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT ON A FEW AREA RIVERS AT
THIS TIME.  ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING BREAK UP THIS SPRING.
A TURN TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WHICH COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ON A SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND WOULD SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE URBAN SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

----------------------------------------------------------------

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING...                   VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    41   32    9   10   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    33   32   10   10    6   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    26   27    9    9   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0    73   56   10   12    7   <5
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3             9.0   12.0   14.0     6   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3            11.5   12.5   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SHIW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    70   58   <5    9   <5   <5
NEWW3             9.0   10.5   11.1    32   46   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    16   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3             6.0    7.5    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
APLW3             8.4    9.0   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    13   13   <5    6   <5   <5
ROTW3            25.0   27.0   28.0     6   13   <5    6   <5   <5
WIRW3            12.0   13.5   14.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3            12.0   15.9   16.6    38   70   <5   10   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
:
:       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID  PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3       7.1     7.3     8.1     8.7     9.8    11.0    11.9
NIAW3      10.3    10.9    11.8    12.7    13.9    15.5    16.3
VLCM4      11.0    11.8    12.8    13.6    15.3    17.2    18.1
MCAW3      13.7    14.1    15.0    15.7    17.5    18.4    19.7
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3       6.5     6.7     7.0     7.4     7.8     8.8     9.5
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3       9.4     9.5     9.8    10.0    10.4    10.6    10.7
SHIW3       9.8    10.1    10.9    11.4    11.9    13.0    13.4
NEWW3       7.6     7.8     8.2     8.7     9.2     9.7     9.9
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3       3.0     3.1     3.5     4.0     4.7     5.3     5.9
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3       2.3     2.5     2.6     2.9     3.4     3.7     4.1
:FOX RIVER
APLW3       6.2     6.3     6.5     6.8     7.2     7.6     7.8
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3       8.4     8.7     9.1     9.5    10.5    11.2    11.9
ROTW3      18.9    19.3    20.3    21.8    22.7    24.2    25.1
WIRW3       5.6     5.7     6.5     7.2     8.0     9.9    10.2
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3       6.8     7.3     8.5    10.9    13.1    15.1    15.4

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID  PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015 :
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3      5.23    5.54    6.84    7.93    9.98   12.76   14.67
NIAW3      6.85    7.86    9.30   10.93   13.64   17.40   19.38
VLCM4      8.13    9.35   11.31   12.86   16.43   20.83   23.13
MCAW3     10.32   11.30   13.52   15.57   20.79   23.77   28.35
.END

THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON
SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE
NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

...CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 5TH 2015...

SNOW COVER HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY DUE TO COLD
DRY CONDITIONS.  SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER VILAS
COUNTY. BETWEEN 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IS OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND RANGES FROM 1.0 TO 2.5
INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY 1.0 INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

FROST DEPTHS VARY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND SOIL TYPE...BUT DID GO DEEPER
IN FEBRUARY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND COLD TEMPERATURES.  AS
OF MARCH 5TH FROST DEPTH MAINLY RANGED FROM 22 TO 45 INCHES.

...FORECAST CONDITIONS...

FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND MAY TURN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATION.

FOR THE REST OF MARCH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR APRIL AND MAY.

ACCESS TO LONG TERM FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB/AHPS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC

$$
TH/AW


































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