Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 242247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO







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