Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 300339
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY WET...BUT MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS OVER LWR MI IS QUITE DRY WITH
SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THIS FEATURE MAY THEREFORE STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FCST.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO -2C SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS POURING
IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING MUCH OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH RIDGING PROGGED BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S ALTHOUGH TYPICAL SPRING TIME LAKE BREEZES AT THE
COAST WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE MUCH COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT THE WEEKEND WHEN TEMPS SHOULD TOP 70.

A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER A
DRY AND MILD SATURDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP
OVER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM MOIST SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE SOME FUEL FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. THIS FRONT WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS TRYING TO INTERACT WITH IT. THE WILL
ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE CWA WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF SHOWED YESTERDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE/LL SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BY LATE MONDAY A
PIECE OF THE LOW IS EJECTED EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY SO WE COULD BE IN
FOR A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

THE AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEPARTING THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z HOWEVER THOSE SHOWERS GET TRAPPED IN THE ROTATION
OF THE UPPER LOW SO THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN UNTIL
MID MORNING THURSDAY. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD ROTATE BACK INTO THE LAN AND JXN TAF
SITES DURING UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR SO. LAYERED CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT
BOTH OF THOSE SITES OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE AS THE COLDEST POOL OF AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATE WITH THAT
COLD AIR. THOSE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE COLD POOL OF AIR MOVES OUT
RATHER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT CLEARING DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF GRAND
HAVEN DUE TO BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE HYDRO CONCERNS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIT-OR-MISS CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE





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