Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 030503
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
103 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
CLOSE BY LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WELL AT LEAST THE WEATHER IS NOT EARTH SHAKING THIS EVENING. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED AS SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR SHOWERS TO ARRIVE. BY SUNDAY EVENING GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ ARRIVES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER
TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF RAIN.

AS FOR TIMING... CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT THE RAIN ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD...NOT REACHING THE EXTREME
SE CWA UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON MONDAY. GOOD FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF
THE FRONT SLOWING DURING MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH...DECREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR NO POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST TO OHIO WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE HERE AS
WELL. WE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
FCST AREA TUESDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES BY LATE WEEK.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
AND A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME
MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER THE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY WELL OFF TO OUR WEST MID TO LATE WEEK NEAR A
COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OUT IN THE PLAINS STATES WHERE THERE
WILL BE MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN ON SUNDAY FROM 10000FT IN THE
AFTERNOON...TO 6000FT OR SO IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD...06Z TO 06Z. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING KMKG FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST AT THE VERY END TOWARDS 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT
PICK UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP WAVES TO ABOUT 3 FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RIVERS MAY RISE A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AS ABOUT AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. SINCE RIVER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE...THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MANY IMPACTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE/HOVING
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO






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