Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 020550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN RESULT FOR THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. JUST A MINOR
TWEAK TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THIS HIGH
CLOUD MAY BE NEEDED...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

GLORIOUS EARLY MAY WX WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SETTLING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK/ELONGATED
MID LEVEL TROUGH IN FLATTENED FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED FOLD OVER OF
LEADING/ELEVATED THETA-E RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THIS TIME. CLEAR OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF SOME DIURNAL CU WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AFFORDING LOW-MID 70S HIGHS
TOMORROW AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

POTENT SW ROLLING EWD SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTN WILL REACH
THE PACNW BY TUE AM AND THEN CARVE A PATH SEWD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CUTOFF BY LT NXT WEEK. LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST WILL LIFT OUT AHD OF THIS SYS THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS LT PD WHILE LEAD NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR WRN BC EJECTS
EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA EARLY IN THE PD.

FNTL BNDRY ASSOCD/W LEAD NRN STREAM SYS WILL PUSH E/S THROUGH
MONDAY BFR STALLING OUT ACRS DOWNSTATE IN/IL AND SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN DVLPMNT DYS 3-4. HWVR EWD FOLD OVER OF LL
THETA-E RIDGE AND LL MSTR PLUME RATHER BENIGN LOOKING W/MUCH BTR
OVERLAP OCCURRING WELL WWD FM W TX NWD INTO KS IN PROXIMITY TO
LEE SIDE TROUGH. IN FACT GENERAL FRONTOLYTIC WKNG OF FNTL BNDRY
W/EWD EXTENT ALG W/DECAYING LL MASS FLUX WITHIN VEERED WRLY LL
FLW SUGGESTS MINIMAL POPS NEEDED BEYOND MON NIGHT-TUE PD. THUS
BROKE AWAY FM UNREALISTIC ALLBLEND GUIDANCE IN FVR OF MORE
SQUARELY ALIGNED GFS/EC/GEM BLEND WHICH ARE DRY UNDERNEATH BLDG
MID LVL RIDGE UNTIL FRI AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL ABV NORMAL OUTSIDE TUE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR MET CONDS ASSURED THROUGH THE FCST PD...AND LIKELY UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. MID LVL SHORTWAVE CENTERED ACRS NRN IL ERLY
THIS AM TO CONT ESEWD TRACK TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY ERLY AFTN.
ONLY TEMPORARY INCRS IN MID/UPR LVL CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH
FEATURE. DRY SLOT IN WAKE WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU
ANTICIPATED WITH SFC DPS LIKELY MIXING OUT INTO UPR 30S. EWD
SHIFT OF SFC RIDGE FM MOUTH OF OHIO RVR TO ERN KY/TN THIS AFTN TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN INCRS IN SWRLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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