Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 270840
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH AND HAS JUST CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES HAD TEMPORARILY CLEARED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. THIS SECOND
DISTURBANCE WAS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED THE 12KM NAM THAT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH
THE INITIALIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
NAM DRYS OUT THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS TOO FAST. THE RAIN CHANCE
DIFFERENCE IS NOTICEABLE AT HILLSDALE MICHIGAN WITH A MET RAIN
CHANCE OF 4 PERCENT VS A GFS RAIN CHANCE OF 31 PERCENT. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC AND DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES LATER TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH WITH ONE LAST NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF WITH ANY FROST ADVISORY GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED AND
GIVEN RECENT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS JUST A
FEW NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

UPR RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUE
PROVIDING FAIR WX AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
L-M60S. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
MID-WEEK UPR LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS... THOUGH
SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT DOES SEEM LIKELY IS THAT THE LOW
OVER TX TODAY WILL MOVE TO TN/KY WED AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GRTLKS. 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NE PORTION OF OUR CWA WED... BUT WAS DISREGARDED AS
AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. DID
FCST A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WED NGT AND THU WITH COOLER TEMPS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPER
GFS. THE OH VALLEY LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRI WITH ROCKIES RIDGE MOVG TO THE GRTLKS AS ZONAL FLOW DVLPS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX WITH
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WARMING
TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. WK SHRTWV`S MOVG EAST THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING ALBEIT WK
INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST A LOW BUT SLOWLY INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.