Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 032032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS AN MCV ROLLS THROUGH...WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. OTHERWISE...MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD
FRONT HEADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH...WITH DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

STILL THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
NIGHT...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
WORK WITH THAN FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL STAY UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...ALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT MAKES IT...IF ANY SUN WILL POKE THROUGH...AND HOW LONG THE
RAIN WILL HOLD ON INTO THE MORNING. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT NEAR THE LAKE...WHICH WILL HAVE AN OBVIOUS
IMPACT ON TEMPS IN THE EAST. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY TOMORROW.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT PUSHES
EAST AND LIFTS A LITTLE NORTH. STILL SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

THE WEST/SOUTHWEST 700 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AGAIN AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE 850 MB
WINDS ARE WEAKER WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS INCREASES THE 850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
700 MB UPWARD MOTION AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERN PUSH
OCCURS FASTER 700 MB. THE 700 MB RH BECOMES SATURATED MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SATURATION LIFTING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY.
THE 950/850 MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR...JUST NOT QUITE SATURATED.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE AND 925 MB FRONT STAYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER...WHILE THE 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE AROUND 100 JOULES/KG. NSHARP SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
WEAK...EVEN TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT...MAINLY FAR SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY EVENING BECOMES NEUTRAL BY WEDNESDAY.
850/700 MB LEVELS DRY A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT. 850/700 MB WIND MAX
IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS LIFTS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. ZERO TO 1 KM NAM CAPE
RISES TO AROUND 1000 JOULES/KG WELL WEST OF MADISON...AND ONLY
AROUND 120 JOULES/KG TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN.

THE MODELS STILL GENERATE MODERATE PRECIPITATION VALUES NORTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE MODELS ONLY HAVE AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AREA THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE MAINLY PRECIP FREE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT DO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY...
WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS.
HOWEVER A LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP THE SHORELINE AREAS COOLER.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT
PUSHES OFF INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA TO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AREA...THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST A LITTLE FASTER.

THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES JUST
SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...AND
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH...WITH
DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHER THAN LOWER VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD
SEE CIGS FLIRT WITH MVFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW...BUT NOT
ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED
MIXING AND GUSTS A BIT...BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ



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