Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 310837
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE PUSHED EAST WITH
SURFACE LOW AND FORCING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE. SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHICH SAW A BIT MORE RAIN THAN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NWRN CWA WHERE SREF PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 1 MILE IS REACHING 60 PCT.

SECOND SHEARED SHORT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NERN WI DURING THE DAY WITH ANY CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER...BUT
STILL WEAK FORCING WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE. EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK AROUND
MID-MORNING. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WEST FOR CONSENSUS HIGHS AROUND 60 THERE...WITH COOLER READINGS
EAST.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

AFTER PASSAGE OF LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER WITH
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
A MILD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THOUGH...AS
WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE COOL LAKE AIR
TO PUSH INLAND.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SO RAISED POPS A BIT. SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION GOING.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY...AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
CLIP THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PRECIP. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND
DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. WENT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT IF THE SYSTEM COMES
FARTHER NORTH...COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THE COLDER AIR AND MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A MIX WITH SNOW.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH. COULD
THEN SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE AREA. WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
MODELS STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER...THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IF THE FRONT
SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WOULD EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS
INSTABILITY. TOOK THE DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WATCHING LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE MOIST FLOW MAY BRING NEED TO KEEP
IFR CLOUD DECK IN THE EAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE MVFR
CLOUDS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING...BUT SOME
INDICATIONS FOR BROKEN VFR CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SURFACE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED AS LOW PULLS
AWAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS EASE
TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV


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