Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031752
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA...FROM BC INTO NW ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LIFTING NE FROM FAR NW ONTARIO TO
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING INTO SRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SSW FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NW
MN INTO ERN SD. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA HAD DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER CNTRL INTO NE MN WITH FAVORABLE 925 MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS FROM MN INTO NW WI HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 50.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
NRN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR
10C...SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S AND PWAT VALUES TO AROUND
1.25 INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF.

THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI BY MID
TO LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN EVENING.
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE LIKELY TO AROUND 1K J/KG DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT AND WBZERO HEIGHTS OF 9K-
10K FT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE SW CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEVERE RISK INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AS NAM REMAINS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEM WHICH KEEP THE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FARTHER
SOUTH.

EXPECT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
06Z WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN OVER THE FAR S AND E LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN WILL BE WELL IN PLACE
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPS FALL TO 3-7C. WITH A WNW WIND MON...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MARQUETTE. SOME HINTS AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SFC LOW FORMING UNDER THE
SOUTHERN UPPER JET AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL
AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WI AND THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN ALOFT. HOW MUCH REACHES THE GROUND REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE PRECIP AS IT MOVES
OVER UPPER MI. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO THE NE AS THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE. WITH MINIMAL FORCING...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE AND SFC LOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN HIGH-END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE OVERALL SCATTERED NATURE
OF EXPECTED PRECIP. BY SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BEGINS TO STALL/WASH OUT OVER WI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS/VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IF AND WHEN TS ENTER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
NE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEARING
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA TO NEAR THE W
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND THROUGH CENTRAL MN. LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT AT IWD 20-22Z. WHILE SAW WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF TS AROUND 23Z...IT WAS LESS LIKELY...SO LEFT VCTS OUT OF
THE TAF FOR THEM. DRY HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING INTO E MT AND THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IF NOT
EARLIER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON
BAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
NEARING FROM THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB



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