Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 030726
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN STUCK WITHIN 20MI OF THE
SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF WHERE THE LAKE MI BREEZE IS
DOMINATING. BOTH SHOW UP VERY WELL OFF THE MQT 88D RADAR. TO THE W
OF THE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES /FAR E MARQUETTE COUNTY AND FAR W
ALGER COUNTY/...PLENTY OF DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED. LOOK FOR A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE CLOUDS AS WE ROLL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR W WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD AND ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE SFC
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO S HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF MN BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED S WINDS USHERING IN MORE MOIST AIR...WITH
DEW POINTS AROUND 50F BY 18Z. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY AS TO WHAT
WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW NEARS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...AND OVER THE W THIRD OF
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 3-5F WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY. KEPT THINKING SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FIRING CLOSE TO AND JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SW CWA AND INTO WI. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE RADAR CLOSELY TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE LAND AREA
IN EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN WILL BE WELL IN PLACE
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPS FALL TO 3-7C. WITH A WNW WIND MON...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MARQUETTE. SOME HINTS AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SFC LOW FORMING UNDER THE
SOUTHERN UPPER JET AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL
AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WI AND THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN ALOFT. HOW MUCH REACHES THE GROUND REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE PRECIP AS IT MOVES
OVER UPPER MI. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO THE NE AS THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE. WITH MINIMAL FORCING...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE AND SFC LOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN HIGH-END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE OVERALL SCATTERED NATURE
OF EXPECTED PRECIP. BY SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BEGINS TO STALL/WASH OUT OVER WI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS MRNG AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HI PRES
DOMINATING. DURING THE AFTN...THE INTERACTION BTWN AN APRCHG
DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT...INCRSG LLVL ABSOLUTE MSTR IN A GUSTY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FNT AND DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WL RESULT IN
SOME SHRA AND TS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE OF
LLVL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...BUT DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME
TS AT SAW...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHRA/TS. ANY
STRONGER TS COULD ALSO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM FAR W ONTARIO AND DEEPENS OVER HUDSON BAY
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE SUNDAY...DRAGGING A  TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/. LOOK FOR HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ND SUNDAY NIGHT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF


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