Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 061139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH VERY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS MORNING.

A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE
OHIO VALLEY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE. MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHING
ACROSS THE PAC NW IS KICKING OUT A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A BROAD SFC TROUGH SPANNING THE EXTENT OF THE
U.S. ROCKIES WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
MID-LEVEL LOW.

AS OF 08Z...A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR
BRAINERD MN TO GREEN BAY TO MUSKEGON CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS TIED TO A WARM FRONT/THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A LAYER FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. OUTSIDE OF THIS...FORCING
IS MINIMAL. WHILE THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND VERY DRY SFC AIR ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THEY CROSS INTO UPPER
MI. TRENDS OFF THE KGRB RADAR SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE STRUGGLING TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE SFC. IN FACT...AREA OBS INDICATE THAT IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
EVEN ACCUMULATE A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH UNDER THE MORE
PRONOUNCED REFLECTIVITIES. WITH THE DECAYING TREND...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI THIS
MORNING.

LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THE PRECIP.
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME SUN COMBINED WITH RISING 925 TO 850 HPA
TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE FOR THE INTERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING FORCING
TIED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TROUGH...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
AREA DRY TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...SOME MID-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...SO SPRINKLES OR A STRAY VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

AS A PROMINENT RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NW ONTARIO AND A TROUGH
OVER THE SW CONUS SHIFT TO THE EAST...SW FLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WARM
CONDITIONS THU INTO FRI WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FROM
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN LAKES.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND A SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CNTRL MN...THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. THE GREATEST COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT ALONG LAKE MI WHERE READINGS WILL
REMAIN INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FRI...A SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD JAMES BAY WILL DRAG THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE
EAST OF THE CWA...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THE ECMWF/GEM WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PCPN BACK THROUGH UPPER MI...AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE WRN LAKES
AND A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH
KEEPS UPPER MI DRY. WHILE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT MAY KEEP
THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE GEM/ECMWF TRENDS
WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SE HALF FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUN-TUE...AS THE SW CONUS CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS...A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN...AS THE
GFS/GEFS/GEM WERE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF.
REGARDLESS OF THE PCPN AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH STRENGTHENING NE TO N FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

A DECAYING LINE OF -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...BRINGING
MVFR CIGS TO KIWD...AND VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO KCMX AND KSAW THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BRING LOW-END MVFR
CIGS TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR MARGINAL LLWS AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER
PLATFORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG AWAY FROM THE UPPER MI
MAINLAND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...BRINGING NW WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER ONTARIO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER


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