Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 311935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB



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