Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 020803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET AND WARM SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
COLD FRONT HAS DECAYED...WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THAT MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HELP AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
AT 3AM...MOST OF THE MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD). WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
WINDS HAVE LET UP...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW-MID
40S...WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...AREAS WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND AIDED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL LIKELY SEE
ENOUGH HEATING FOR A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
WEST/CENTRAL...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THINKING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) WILL BE
DRY...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THAT DID OCCUR UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IT EVEN SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS. IN THAT CASE...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIKELY AIDED SOME OF THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WONDERING IF THERE COULD BE A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS TIED TO THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
UPSTREAM (AND POCKET OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN) INDICATES THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WAS VERY
TEMPTED TO PUT IN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SECTIONS OF
THE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE AIDED
BY AN AREA OF 850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM...BUT IN THE END
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S. FINALLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-40 PERCENT...THERE
ARE ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS
WILL STAY BELOW 20MPH.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL DEPART THIS EVENING AND LEAD TO A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT (AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MINNESOTA) AND HELP KEEP
LOWS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO THE LOW-MID 50S OVER THE WEST. AS THAT
FRONT APPROACHES...DID SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT FROM
NRN PLAINS...AND THEN CHCS FOR MORE CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK (WED-FRI).

SAT NIGHT...WEAK MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT KEEPING THE MID-LVLS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE REGION AS
NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. WL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST INTO SAT NIGHT
AS SFC COLD FRONT STILL OVER ERN MN BY 12Z SUN SHOULD KEEP FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WEST OF THE CWA.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 8-9C...SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4
INCHES. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL
CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA SUN EVENING. MLCAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG WITH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-50KT/20-30KT
PERPENDICULAR TO COLD FRONT AND WBZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-10 KFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
GUSTS/HAIL APPROACHING NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
WI BORDER. SPC DAY3 CONVECTION OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY HAS FAR WRN
INTERIOR OF CWA (MAINLY GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTY) IN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SVR. AFTER COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF FCST AREA BY 06Z
MON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...WITH COLD FRONT FROM SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT ALREADY
EAST OF THE FCST AREA...EXPECT A DRY DAY MONDAY.  HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. INLAND HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DROP 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S READINGS AND
COULD BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE WITH ONSHORE NNW FLOW.

WED INTO FRI...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT N-NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK.  PCPN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WED
ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING 8H JET. MODELS DIFFER BY THU-FRI ON
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ASSOC COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS LEADING
TO POOR FCST CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE THE 12Z GFS STALLS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC COLD FRONT TO WEST CREATING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS. FOR NOW...WL LEAN TOWARD BLEND OF MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM-NH SOLNS AND BRING IN INCREASING CHCS OF CONVECTION
LATE THU INTO FRI AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO AREA AHEAD OF
INCOMING FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
THROUGH THE KSAW TAF SITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START TO INCREASE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THAT INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 20KTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A TROUGH
SWEEPS EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND GUST UP TO 20KTS
THROUGH MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS BELOW 15KTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK (ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF



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