Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 170814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS


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