Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 012332
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MN INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. TONIGHT. OTHER THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. HAVE MARGINAL POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR
WEST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MENTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIMITED DUE TO THE REMAINING DRY AIR IN
PLACE AS WELL AS THE WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVERALL WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE U.P. AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA HELPS TO DRIVE WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE STRONGEST COMPONENT COMING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SINCE THE OVERALL
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...PLACING THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT FROM
NRN PLAINS...AND THEN CHCS FOR MORE CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK (WED-FRI).

SAT NIGHT...WEAK MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT KEEPING THE MID-LVLS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE REGION AS
NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. WL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST INTO SAT NIGHT
AS SFC COLD FRONT STILL OVER ERN MN BY 12Z SUN SHOULD KEEP FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WEST OF THE CWA.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 8-9C...SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4
INCHES. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL
CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA SUN EVENING. MLCAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG WITH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-50KT/20-30KT
PERPENDICULAR TO COLD FRONT AND WBZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-10 KFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
GUSTS/HAIL APPROACHING NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
WI BORDER. SPC DAY3 CONVECTION OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY HAS FAR WRN
INTERIOR OF CWA (MAINLY GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTY) IN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SVR. AFTER COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF FCST AREA BY 06Z
MON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...WITH COLD FRONT FROM SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT ALREADY
EAST OF THE FCST AREA...EXPECT A DRY DAY MONDAY.  HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. INLAND HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DROP 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S READINGS AND
COULD BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE WITH ONSHORE NNW FLOW.

WED INTO FRI...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT N-NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK.  PCPN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WED
ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING 8H JET. MODELS DIFFER BY THU-FRI ON
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ASSOC COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS LEADING
TO POOR FCST CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE THE 12Z GFS STALLS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC COLD FRONT TO WEST CREATING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS. FOR NOW...WL LEAN TOWARD BLEND OF MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM-NH SOLNS AND BRING IN INCREASING CHCS OF CONVECTION
LATE THU INTO FRI AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO AREA AHEAD OF
INCOMING FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
THROUGH THE KSAW TAF SITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. THIS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC


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