Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.

BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.

MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER A FEW PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED PCPN DURING THE LAST 2
WEEKS...THE PATTERN IS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING ONE THAT FAVORS DRY
WEATHER IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH HUDSON BAY THIS
WEEKEND WILL REDEVELOP W TO THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN HIGH PRES SETTLING S THRU THE PLAINS TO THE
WRN GULF THRU THU NEXT WEEK. END RESULT IS AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN
WITH NO CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO REACH UPPER MI DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM
HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N WHERE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. GRADUAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OR MOST LOCATIONS BY WED/THU. HOWEVER...00Z
MODEL RUNS CAST DOUBT ON THE WARMTH MIDWEEK. MORE ON THAT LATER.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AFORMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPS NOT GETTING HIGHER THAN THE LOWER
40S AT BEST. SOME LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD
WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S ON BOTH DAYS. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
ESTIMATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS
SAT/SUN AROUND 50F TO THE LWR 50S. SUN MAY END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT AT MANY LOCATIONS UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY WIND AS OPPOSED TO
THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND ON SAT. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE W SAT...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTN...SOME MOISTURE MAY BACK IN FROM THE NE FOR SUN...
LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THAT TIME. MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND SLIGHT
MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z GEM...
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. EVEN IF THE GFS WHICH
DRIVES SHORTWAVE THRU THE UPPER LAKES IS CORRECT...LACK OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ANTECEDANT DRY AIR MASS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL OF
ANY PCPN. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH A MORE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BEFORE DIVING SE...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
OF SHRA SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. WITH THIS THE
FIRST RUN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR
NOW.

HEADING INTO WED/THU...GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM RIDGING TO BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...RESULTING IN
SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THIS HAS
OFTEN BEEN A FAVORED PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS...THIS TREND
IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY END UP BEING A CORRECT TREND. THIS
SUGGESTS THE WARMTH (TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) REFLECTED
IN THE FCST FOR WED/THU (A RESULT OF MORE WEIGHTING FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARMER SOLUTIONS) MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IWD LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SHRA MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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