Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 041907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHICH QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUE...SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP AND LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT AND
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BIASED CORRECTED LOWS. KEPT WITH THE DRY
AIR FOR TUE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. OVERALL...KEPT THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER MI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500MB
RIDGE AND SLOWLY EXITING SFC HIGH. WELL TO OUR S A WARM FRONT WILL
BE SET UP FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MT/WY E THROUGH IA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. AN ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR N
STRETCHED ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO OUR S SHIFTS N INTO W UPPER MI. THE
BEST PULL OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF WILL REMAIN W OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE E OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SIZABLE TROUGH TIGHTENS ITS GRIP OVER W
CANADA AND THE W HALF OF THE U.S. A SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE IN THE SW
FLOW ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON /ALIGNING
WITH THE BROAD SFC TROUGH/...WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW EJECTS
INTO THE E DAKOTAS AND MN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING N ACROSS ONTARIO. NORMAL LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 12-13C ON S FLOW
/WSW 850MB WINDS OF 25-40KTS STRONGEST W/...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING WHEN
THE COLD FRONT NEARS TEMPS OVER THE E HALF MAY BE EVEN WARMER
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
BY 06Z FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR NEAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE 04/00Z ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FARTHER E WITH THE LOW FROM
THURSDAY ON. THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SET UP OVER N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON BY 06Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION STILL HAS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E THIRD
OF THE CWA AT 06Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY IS PROVING TO BE A MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE DAY DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HEDGE
THE FCST CLOSER TO THE GFS...AS THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN E/FASTER
OUTLIER.

EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH IN SATURDAY AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 6C
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE 04/00Z ECMWF ALREADY HINTS AT
PRECIP FOR THE FAR SW CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW NEARING FROM THE CENTRAL TO S PLAINS. WILL GO AWAY FROM THIS
IDEA...AND KEEP DRIER CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. WE WERE ONLY
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ANYWAY S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO
THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING
FCST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP A BIT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS...WHICH IN TURN GOES ALONG WITH THE ORIGINAL THINKING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN OF BELOW 0C 850MB TEMPS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE
END OF DAY 7 SO WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07


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