Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 040010
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
810 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CURRENTLY MONITORING DEVELOPING CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA /INLAND W HALF/...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT 19Z THE COLD
FRONT WAS STILL TO THE W OF THE CWA...TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF
BETTER INSTABILITY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISRUPT ANY STRONGER LINES OF
CONVECTION THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE MOVE INTO AT LEAST N UPPER MI.
SPC SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ALONG THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. MARGINAL SHEAR
REMAINS...WITH THE BEST CAPE VALUES /AROUND 1K J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF
THE WI BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
BY 06Z MONDAY...WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS.

PLENTY OF DRY AIR EXPECTED OVER THE W MONDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WARMEST S CENTRAL. RH VALUES
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM
THE SW CONUS AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES WILL DOMIMATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN BLO .25 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
UNDER THE SFC HIGH...MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT COULD VERY WELL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT SEVERAL OF THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD SPOTS. EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND ON TUESDAY AND MAYBE BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY/S READINGS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST. COOLER READINGS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT SE FLOW
ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR SHRA OVER MAINLY
WEST HALF (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NNE
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
WITH WAA BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WAA CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN A BIT. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN PCPN WED NIGHT AS 850 MB WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES
CAPPED BY WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THU-FRI...TEMPS SHOULD REALLY CLIMB THU ALONG WITH INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS SFC TROUGH
THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LAYER PWATS INCREASE FROM
NEAR 1.5 INCHES WEST TO 1.25 INCHES EAST. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
12-18 HRS FASTER THAN EITHER THE 12Z GFS OR 12Z CANADIAN MODEL. 00Z
ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE THE 12Z
GFS/CANADIAN SHOW A FRONTAL TIMING OF FRI ATFERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING PCPN CHANCES OVER THE WEST HALF THU
AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE EAST HALF THU NIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SHRA/TSRA
HANGING AROUND ON FRIDAY WITH ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKING
PLACE AND GFS/CANADIAN SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE WRN
CWA.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE BIGGEST IMPACT ON
FCST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. IF 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES THEN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
12Z SLOWER GFS AND CANADIAN SOLN WITH FRONT WOULD WARRANT KEEPING
SHRA/TSRA CHCS IN FOR AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN LINGERING INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND CANADIAN
WOULD THEN ARGUE FOR DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GIVEN POOR MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PROBABLY EMPLOY A BLEND
OF FCST GUIDANCE FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

NEXT SUNDAY...AGAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL PROBABLY ARGUE FOR USING
A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE BY DAY 7 FCST. THIS WOULD WARRANT A DRY
FCST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST STILL UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES OVER AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRIES TO DEVELOP PCPN ALONG THE
WI BORDER COUNTIES IN STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF IT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LINGERING SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A TS AT SAW...WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPR DISTURBANCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR.
ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY AT
SAW EARLY THIS EVNG...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES THIS FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES EDGES TOWARD THE AREA ON MON. SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS WL ALSO OCCUR ON MON WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE INTO FAR N QUEBEC TONIGHT AND DRAG
A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG. FOG WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW
ON MONDAY. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO DRIFT INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW
ONTARI...AND A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EMERGING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO
QUEBEC. THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGHACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF


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