Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 051134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT WRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH THE NRN LAKES...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MI HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S WITH SEVERAL INLAND COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. CLOUDS AND

TODAY...EXPECT THAT HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN IA INTO
NRN IL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. MIXING TO 5K FT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST IN THE 6C TO 8C RANGE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70...EXCEPT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES WHERE READING WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20
PCT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AOB 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND AND 850 MB WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE
SLOWER END OF GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED WITH THE PCPN ADVANCING FROM THE
SOUTH. SO...NO PCPN MENTION WAS INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AMIDST SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA AT 12Z WED AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER
GEORGIAN BAY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIFTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE A
BROAD SFC TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE U.S. ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR TWO-DAY TREND IN LOWERING QPF ALONG AN 850 HPA WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE SW CWA WED MORNING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVING TO BE TOO MUCH TO MAINTAIN MOST
OF THE INCOMING RAIN SHOWERS FROM WI. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MN. HAVE THUS OPTED TO
CUT NEARLY ALL CHANCES OF PRECIP EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE H8 WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA...THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CAPPING AROUND 750 HPA SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT UNDER
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM AN H8 50KT JET AND A DEVELOPING LEFT-EXIT
OF A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THU
NIGHT. HOWEVER...KEPT POPS AT JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH.

TEMPS COULD GET QUITE WARM THU IF ENOUGH AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS.
GIVEN THE CAP...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSOLATION TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST UNDER H8 TEMPS UP TO 14C. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER WX...MIXING INTO 35 TO 45KT WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN QUITE A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF
WEST DID NOT BENEFIT FROM SATURDAYS PRECIP...FIRE WX CONCERNS SHOULD
BE PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING
IN MIN RH VALUES ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...FIRE INDICES
ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE INCREASING FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WEST...SO THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SLOW TO ARRIVE.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AND USHERING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPS
WILL DROP ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WINDS BECOME NW.

SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM STRUGGLE TO PUSH THE COLD
FRONT FAR AWAY FROM THE CWA...LEAVING LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE HALF. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...AND GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
NEARLY ALL POPS OUT OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE N WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F NEAR
THE SHORE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCE QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH EXITING THE WESTERN CONUS. FOLLOWING THE
GFS SOLUTION...A SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK ENE
ALONG THE STALLED W TO E SFC BOUNDARY BIFURCATING THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM TRACK THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. ABUNDANT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ONLY LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO HAD TO RESORT TO USING
CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE EAST BY LATE THU INTO
THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB


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