Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 011712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE
OVERALL FORCING GETS WEAKER WITH TIME BUT SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
IN THE TERMS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PWAT`S IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE POOLING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE...ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BUMPS
ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED URBAN INCIDENTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH CENTRAL
CONUS ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AND NO REASON TO DIFFER
FROM THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PERIODS...70S TO AROUND 80
MOST DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN


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