Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 060201
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1001 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH-BASED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TWIN
TIERS, BUT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GENERATE QPF TOTALS BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND EVEN
THESE MIGHT BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ONE AND THREE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES DEPICTED FROM THE RADAR.

HAVE LOWERED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SUNRISE AND REDUCED THE POPS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE IDEA THAT
RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
ANIMATIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS SW NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY THROUGH MID- EVENING REACHING THE
CATSKILLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST THAN SOME OF THE LOWER-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WITH
JUST CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NO
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING EAST ALONG THE TWIN TIERS BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT THIS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT
TO KELM/KBGM/KAVP WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. KITH
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS BUT REMAIN VFR. THE NORTHERN TWO
SITES, KSYR/KRME, STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC


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