Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301325
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
925 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK LATE TONIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0915 AM UPDATE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA TODAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TENDENCY WILL STILL BE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DOMINATE IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE
RAISED THE WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS BUFKIT PROFILES
INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS TO MIX DOWN. ALSO
ADJUSTED HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS AS CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PRE FRONTAL TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN CWA MOISTENING THE
COLUMN AND BRINGING A LITTLE SNOW. THE FRONT IS IN OHIO AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 40
SNOW WILL BE WET AND ONLY ACCUMULATE ON SNOW AND GRASS AND NOT
MUCH ON THE ROAD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
COOLER AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPSLOPE
FROM SW THIS MORNING THEN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GO NW SO CAA AND
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW MAY LINGER THERE ALL NIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE SNOW THEN WILL BE IN THE EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT DRY ACROSS ALL BUT ONEIDA COUNTY. ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING SO MIN TEMPS IN 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

TOUGHEST PART OF FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE CLIPPER THAT IS
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT BUT BETTER THEN IT WAS. 00Z EURO HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A FURTHER NORTH AND COLDER TRACK THAN EARLIER. THIS
IS CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT THE NAM IS EVEN FURTHER TO THE NE ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE CWA WITH THE PRECIP ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. WITH THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSENESS TO THE
STORM HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA.
WITH THE STORM DURING THE DAY AND THE BULK OF IT AT MAX HEATING IN
THE AFTN IT WILL AGAIN BE A MIX WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS IN NE
PA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TWIN TIERS. STEUBEN COUNTY HAS THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE SNOW THERE
STARTING IN THE MORNING. AMOUNTS STILL LESS THAN 4 INCHES. DURING
THE AFTN IN MOST OF THE RIVER VALLEYS THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.
LIQUID AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE FAST MOVING
STORM SO NO HYDRO ISSUES.

AFTER THIS STORM PULLS OUT LATE TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
MOVES IN WITH DRY AIR. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. WED
NGT A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAINING DRY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AND NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE ECENS MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN. IN
GENERAL A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

WED NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OFF THE NJ COAST AND
A COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST THEN A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
FINALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD
THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF FRONTS
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
PULLED BACK A BIT ON THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS, AS THE PRECIPITATION
HAS COME THROUGH MORE SCATTERED THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MANY
OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING, SO WE HAVE
REMOVED SNOW FROM MOST OF THE TERMINALS.

TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FROM CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET, AND VISIBILITIES
FLUCTUATING AS LOW AS 3SM OR 4SM AT TIMES.

3 AM DISC...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING INTO NY/PA WILL SPREAD A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN
3SM AND 6SM IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 FT
AND 5000 FT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

AT RME...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AND UP TO 2000 FT AGL WILL
GENERATE MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT A BIT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...OCCASIONAL MINOR RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN/SNOW AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH.

WED/THU...VFR.

THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP





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