Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 280537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT ONCE SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED...AND WITH LACK OF ANY COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS. MINS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK AND MPV OVERNIGHT.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS VFR TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
LEADING TO LIKELY A MIX OF BKN/SCT VFR CLOUD COVER TRENDING
TOWARDS IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. NO EXPECTED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS TOMORROW WE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED EXPECT THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP GUSTING 15-20KTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AS THE NORTHERN NEW YORK SITES ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY 05-07KTS WHEREAS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS KEEPING WINDS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 9-11KTS GUSTING TO 17KTS AT PBG AND MPV AS OF THE
LATEST OBS. UPSTREAM OBS ALL POINT TO VFR CONDITIONS SO THE MVFR
AT SLK AND MPV WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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