Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 182358 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOW STRATUS/LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS AROUND 05Z AND SPREAD INLAND TO LRD BY 10Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS TO REACH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS LATER TONIGHT THAT
COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. BUT CHANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FROM 10-15Z WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND BECOME SCATTERED/VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS TO FORM OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GARDEN VARIETY
CONVECTION POPPING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE. BY THIS
EVENING THAT FEATURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. A FAVORABLE
JET STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
DESPITE OUR WORKED OVER NATURE.

BY SUNDAY DRIER UPPER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MOST FAVORABLE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG...WITH
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S EAST AND
90S WEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT DOWN INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE ORDINARY CONVECTION AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR MID APRIL.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLENTIFUL
MSTR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL MEAN SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE AFTN...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
DESPITE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LEANED TWRD THE COOLER
HPC/BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

LATER IN THE WEEK THE NEXT UPPER SYS ALONG THE VERY ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS FCST BY ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO EJECT OUT
OF THE SW CONUS.  SOME STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYS BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.  THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH A CPL ROUNDS OF STRONG-LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY.  TEMPS WILL WARM STEADILY BUT DO NOT EXPECT READING
AS WARM AS THE MEX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  85  68  77  66  /  30  20  20  30  30
VICTORIA          66  86  62  76  60  /  30  10  20  10  20
LAREDO            67  91  67  78  64  /  20  20  20  30  30
ALICE             67  88  67  78  63  /  30  20  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          70  79  68  75  67  /  30  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           65  90  64  77  61  /  20  10  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        68  87  68  78  64  /  30  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  79  69  75  68  /  30  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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