Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060546
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD,
THE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ALLOW HIGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO HIGH
50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT HAYS
AND PRATT.

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD SURFACE
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A DRYLINE (MOST LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF DODGE CITY) AND THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE, PLACES SUCH AS PRATT, LARNED,
STAFFORD AND HAYS HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE; BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING, JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY ALONG A
DRYLINE, ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH HIGH CAPE AND SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A
WARM FRONT THEN MOVES BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY
WITH MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. SOME MAY BE SEVERE
INTO THE EVENING WITH FORECAST CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE AROUND 80.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA BORDER ON FRIDAY, THEN LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY. AS THE WARM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY, A
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. WITH HIGH SHEAR
AND HIGH CAPES FORECAST, SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT, ACCORDING TO THE
NEW ECMWF, HOWEVER, MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST. LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN THE IFR TO INTERMITTENT
LIFR CATEGORY WILL BE FOUND AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE CEILING
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR DEVELOPING IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE, AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL ONLY...AS GCK AND
DDC WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  57  74 /  10  40  60  50
GCK  53  79  54  71 /  10  20  50  40
EHA  51  79  51  75 /  10  20  30  20
LBL  54  81  56  77 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  58  79  55  69 /  50  30  60  40
P28  63  80  60  77 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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