Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARTLY STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY BUT WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHORT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
STATE. THAT SAID...WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
MAY ACT ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HELP GENERATE ISOLATED BRIEF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF ANY OCCURS AT
ALL. DRY LINE FORMATION TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
RESULTING IN ELEVATIONS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND
WILL ALSO DEEPEN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. AS RESULT
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUST AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR WIND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL TAKE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MEANS CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND EXITS TO THE
EAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDS
GENERALLY FEW- SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT
18Z TO 16-21G30KTS...DIMINISHING AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  46  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  45  75  48  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  34  57  35  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  46  75  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             65  40  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  42  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  40  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  46  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  48  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  75  48  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  47  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  40  77  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  48  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  39  63  38  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
MESCALERO               59  38  62  39  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                59  39  63  40  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 65  36  69  38  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
HILLSBORO               71  42  74  43  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               73  41  77  43  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  37  68  38  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  68  39  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   73  39  77  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  33  74  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 69  41  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  44  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 74  42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  42  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  41  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.