Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 032037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

NO WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF US 281.

DEWPOINT VALUES ARE RUNNING 10F DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON VS.
YESTERDAY AND THIS IS LIKELY BEING PERCEIVED IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. NWP DEPICTS H925-850 THETA-E ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT IS RESULTING IN MORE STOUT
CLOUD COVERAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX HIGHS THERE WITH
REST OF REGION WARMING UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

PWATS NEAR 1" CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3-1.4" THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL WIND FLOW...EXPECT
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COMBINED
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES MIGRATING OFF A PARENT LOW
IN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT LIGHT ISENTROPIC SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP AND
ALLOW FOR INCREASED SURFACE HEATING UNDERNEATH A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION. WITH WEAK FORCING AND NO LOW-LVL FOCUSING BOUNDARY...
FEEL THE CAP SHOULD HOLD AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED...
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALONG AND WEST OF US
281 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WILL AID IN MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER FORCING AND
LIFT WHICH WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.5-1" NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH.

A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL OPEN AND PIVOT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO AND THE GREAT PLAINS. RESIDUAL NEGATIVE
TILT TROUGHING AND HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH IN SITU MOISTURE
WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE CONSOLIDATED SIGNAL OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
1500-2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 26C IN WESTERN ZONES
COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND A STRENGTHENING
CAPPING INVERSION. STILL...SOME LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY INDUCED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WED AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PROGGED IMPULSE SHIFTING OVER
THE REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH STEADILY CLIMBING
MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS 1.6-1.8"/. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE CAP TO ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO FIRE INVOF THE DRYLINE THAT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS OF 2500 J/KG AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS COULD SUPPORT A TSTORM CLUSTER NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
VICINITY AND NORTHWARD.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER LARGE CUT-OFF LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE
ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH OVER TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY LIKELY
TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF REGION. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE OF AN IMPULSE INTERACTING JUST RIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLY SURGING DRY LINE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CLOSER TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  81  65  81  69 /  10  10  10  40  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  80  64  81  68 /  10  10  10  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  80  64  82  69 /  10  20  10  40  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  79  63  78  66 /  10  10  10  50  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  81  68  82  69 /  20  30  30  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  79  63  79  67 /  10  10  10  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  80  67  81  69 /  10  20  20  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  80  64  81  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  81  63  81  69 /  10  10  10  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  80  66  81  69 /  10  20  10  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  81  67  82  70 /  10  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



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