Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 012010
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA
BUT A TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT NEAR KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE STARTING TOMORROW AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL TURN DRIER AND BREEZIER EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A NEW HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. A 1035 MB
HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT A WEAK NORTH TO SOUTH TROUGH IS
KEEPING WIND SPEEDS LIGHT NEAR KAUAI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SO DRY TRADE-WIND
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AFTER DAYS
OF WIDELY DIFFERING FORECASTS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND TOMORROW EVENING AND SPREADING TO
KAUAI BY SATURDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL KEEP EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE
AREA SO SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE TEMP MOD TURB SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS BELOW 8000 FT AND AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
TURBULENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS AND OVER
CENTRAL LANAI.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A
TROUGH MAY DROP THE WINDS BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS MAUI BY SATURDAY.

A LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
BOOST SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
SERIES OF SMALL NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$
DONALDSON





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