Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 262133
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
233 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST IS
INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTED TROUGH THAT IMPACTED OUR AREA YDAY
TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. SOME RESIDUAL
STRATO-CUMULUS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
UPWARD BY 6-10 DEG F FROM YDAY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND BY 8-13 DEG F OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN.

12Z WRF INDICATING THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER
NORCAL ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND ACROSS OUR AREA. RISES IN
HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES WILL BRING AN EVEN MORE NOTICABLE
WARMING TREND TO OUR AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE 8-14
DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARD AND REACH
THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. WHILE THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL SOME FROM TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
MUCH COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS A RESULT
OF LOW LEVEL MARINE COOLED AIR SPILLING INLAND. AT THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-WEEK LOW OVER THE PAC NW
WASHES OUT OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT OF MARINE COOLED AIR
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
A PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF AND FOR A WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE NORCAL COAST ON THURSDAY AND DROP SOUTHWARD...FORMING A
WEAK TROUGH OVER CA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH AND OMEGA PROGS
ARE INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT...BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TODAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNTIL 21Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-26       98:1926     57:1955     68:1926     37:1975
KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970

KBFL 04-26       98:1926     57:1904     67:1926     32:1893
KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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