Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 020300
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH P/W VALUES AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH...SO EXPECT A CLEAR AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHER
CLOUDS TO OUR W AND NW ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY ERODE AS THEY MOVE
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. LOWS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
HEELS OF A WEAK RIDGE. ANY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE ENTERING OUR CWA. BEYOND THIS...A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER.
THIS LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES TACKED ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BALMY WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE I HAVE DELAYED POPS FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT REPRESENT THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM. ANY WET WEATHER SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED OFF THE COAST THEREAFTER. CLOUD COVER WILL SIMILARLY MAKE
A QUICK EXIT THANKS TO LOW AMPLITUDE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
DEEP LAYER DRYING. FOLLOWING THE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO BUT RETURN FLOW KICKING IN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING BACK SEASONABLE TEMPS, ANY WARM ADVECTION AIDED AT
NIGHT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS USUAL STARTS TO
DEPICT STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING
DRY THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AND POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20
PERCENT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT RAMP
UP RAIN CHANCES APPRECIABLY AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNING THE GULF AND BAHAMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AOB 5 KT TONIGHT.
GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG. ON
THURSDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ENE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT THIS
EVE WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER FRINGES WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A RETURN FLOW AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING EASTERLY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY. BY MIDDAY...A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY VEER TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL INCREASING FROM AROUND TEN KNOTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET THURSDAY TO 4-6 FEET LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AGITATED
WINDS AND SEAS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY MORNING COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE AN ABATING TREND IN BOTH. THINGS
REALLY COLLAPSE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVERHEAD. THEN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SLATED FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT MAY ADD A FOOT IN
PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20NM
FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL



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