Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 031027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT
20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO
BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH
THE LOWEST 200 MB.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES






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