Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 060830
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A RATHER WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. MEANWHILE...LARGE CYCLONIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY NE OUT OF NM INTO KS. MODELS CONFIRM
THIS PATTERN WITH ALSO A MID LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S IN PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. REPOSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TODAY
MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS
AND FINALLY A DOSE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MODELS...INCLUDING
HRRR AND OTHER HIRES MODELS...ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WARM...BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG
THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO SCRAPE OUT AT MOST
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT PROBABLY WONT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FEEBLE. WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME...SREF DATA IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS IN THESE AREAS AND ADDED FOG IN WX GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELIEVE THE LACK
OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND INCREASED WARMING ALOFT WILL BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FAR SW AREAS OF THE CWA
WOULD BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE CONVECTION
WOULD FORM IN THAT AREA UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...STORMS THAT
ORIGINATE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH COULD MOVE IN OR BRUSH ACROSS THAT
AREA. WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS AT THE MOMENT...NOT YET CONVINCED OF
THIS SCENARIO./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE
FEATURES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO COME LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...FORCES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. SOME VCTS WILL BE SEEN AROUND HBG BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 07/02Z.
AFTER 07/06Z...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER HBG
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HKS/JAN/MEI./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  63  85  64 /   7   8   9   5
MERIDIAN      83  60  85  62 /   7   4   9   4
VICKSBURG     84  64  86  66 /   7   7   9   6
HATTIESBURG   84  62  87  63 /  28  14   9   5
NATCHEZ       82  65  84  66 /  23  17  12   8
GREENVILLE    85  65  86  66 /   6   5   9   7
GREENWOOD     85  64  84  65 /   5   3   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/19



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