Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET



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