Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS


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