Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 041126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL WARM AND DRY DAYS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...WE DO NOT SEE ANY NOTEWORTHY RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
MIDSOUTH UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE BACKED OFF TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC AND
CLOSER TO WHAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE 8-16 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE
MIDSOUTH MAY NOT FALL OUT OF THE 60S BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD WAKE UP TO READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY...WHEN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS MAY REACH
86-87 DEGREES...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE 83-85
DEGREE RANGE. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS A
STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDSOUTH. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AN A RETURN OF AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INTERESTINGLY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL...OR HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. IT WON`T IMPACT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT GIVE THOSE INTERESTED
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE ENJOY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL WARMER THAN
NORMAL...WITH 20-30 PERCENT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.