Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 050136
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACRS OBX WITH LOWS THERE FROM UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST ZONES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG
AGAIN TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO AROUND
60 BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. SIG FOG DVLPMT NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM
AIR. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SO JUST
EXPECTING A CUMULUS FIELD AS THE SEA BREEZE MARCHES INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS
PACKAGE. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...THEN
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER MID WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO
RIDGE INTO THE SE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING
UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWEST DRIFT OF THE LOW
AROUND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK...
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UTILIZED A GFS/WPC BLEND FOR WINDS
WHICH WOULD PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIDN`T INCORPORATE THIS
PACKAGE. CONTINUE INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY THU WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS). A
TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN NC COAST
COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE LOW PRES AREA POSSIBLY STILL IN THE VCNTY. WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY VALS AND STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...IT
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SUMMERY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN
CONTROL WED. APPROACHING LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH MAY PRODUCE
LOWERED CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THU THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT.
HIGHEST WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A
TIGHTER. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST HAS
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE. WILL RELY ON CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ASHORE
IN SC THU...THOUGH A FEW KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE NC WATERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FCST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WED
INTO THU...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE FRI AND SAT. AN
OFFSHORE TRACK WOULD KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HOWEVER. NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET NORTH...THU INTO FRI WITH THE
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/JME/SK
MARINE...JAC/JME/SK



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